Marijuana Legalization and Google Trends |
My job market paper examines the impacts of two hotly debated marijuana policies – medical and recreational marijuana legalization – on online information seeking and the interplay between search behavior and adolescent marijuana use. Motivated by the empirical work from business and marketing sectors that shows information-seeking is predictive of decisions observed in field settings, I begin by examining the influence of legal landscape changes on search activities reflecting interests in marijuana news and laws, marijuana use, and potential health concerns of marijuana use. Using data provided by Google Trends, I find that recreational marijuana legalization boosts search interests in all dimensions, while medical marijuana legalization only influences searches related to news and laws. Event study regressions suggest that these effects are partly transitory and partly persistent. I then explore the link between information-seeking and behavioral change by matching state-level search behavior with adolescent marijuana use using micro-level data from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS). The identified positive association implies that future research may find that recreational marijuana legalization increases marijuana use once sufficient post-treatment data on consumption become available. (Download the paper)
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E-cigarette MLSA Laws and Youth Substance Use |
We use difference-in-differences models and individual-level data from the national and state Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) from 2005 to 2015 to examine the effects of e-cigarette Minimum Legal Sale Age (MLSA) laws on youth cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, and marijuana use. Our results suggest that these laws increased youth smoking participation by about one percentage point, approximately half of which could be attributed to smoking initiation. We find little evidence of higher cigarette smoking persisting beyond the point at which youth age out of the law. Our results also show little effect of the law on youth drinking, binge drinking, and marijuana use. Taken together, our findings suggest a possible unintended effect of e-cigarette MLSA laws—rising cigarette use in the short term while youth are restricted from purchasing e-cigarettes.
(Download the paper) |
Cigarette Taxation and Youth Smoking |
A sizeable literature spanning three decades generally finds that cigarette taxes reduce teen smoking. However, a new study by Hansen et al. (2017) shows that the effect has disappeared in recent years. With my co-author, I argue that this disappearance can be attributed to an inherently nonlinear relationship. When the cigarette tax rate is already high, only price-insensitive consumers remain in the market so further tax increases are not effective deterrents. Using data from the combined national and state YRBS, spanning from 1991 to 2013, and models that control for state and year effects as well as observable characteristics, I present two pieces of evidence to support this hypothesis. First, semi-parametric models document a diminishing marginal effect of cigarette taxes on teen smoking, with recent tax increases in most states falling on the flat portion of the curve. Second, cigarette taxes still reduce youth smoking – even in the period during which Hansen et al. (2017) find no effect on average – in states where the baseline tax rate is low. Both results are robust to the inclusion of state-specific linear time trends, which contrasts the sensitivity observed in previous research using restrictive functional forms.
(Work in progress) |
Americans' Attitudes in Climate Change |
After a decade of steady growth in the acceptance of the existence of climate change and its anthropogenic causes, opinions have polarized, with almost one third of Americans, mostly Republicans, denying that the climate is changing or that human activity is responsible. What causes Americans to change their minds on this issue? Using a large panel data set, we examined the impacts of direct experience with weather anomalies, ideology, relative prioritization of environmental conservation in comparison to economic development, and motivated reasoning that adjusts individual opinion to align with others who share one’s party identification. A generalized ordered logit model confirmed the importance of political ideology, party identification, and relative concern about environmental conservation and economic development on attitude change. The effect of party identification strengthened with attentiveness to news and public affairs, consistent with the logic of motivated reasoning. Recent experience with hot summers, warm winters, droughts, and natural disasters had only a minimal impact on attitude change.
(Download the paper) |
Entrepreneur-ship in China |
China is experiencing a rapid urbanization during which millions of migrants are moving from rural to urban areas. A national strategy of “mass entrepreneurship and innovation” focusing on the entrepreneurial development among the general public and rural migrants in particular is expected to take the centerstage of China's renewed attention on unemployment strains. Using data from a nationally representative survey, we revisit the importance of human and social capital on rural migrants’ decisions in regard to venture creation. Moreover, we provide some of the first empirical evidence on the importance of external environment on their entrepreneurial endeavors. Our "first-difference"-style regression models suggest that individual characteristics and social networks are important factors, but a warming and hospitable community is even more contributive to rural migrants’ venture creation.
(Forthcoming at Small Business Economics) (Email me for the paper) |
HFW and Youths With Mental Health Challenges |
Treating youths with serious emotional disturbances (SED) often requires institutional care, and thus expensive. A significant amount of recent federal and state funding has been dedicated to expanding home and community-based services (HCBS) for these youths as an alternative to institutional care. High Fidelity Wraparound (Wrap) is an evolving, evidence-informed practice to help sustain community-based placements for youths with mental health challenges through the use of intensive, customized care coordination among parents, multiple child-serving agencies, and providers. While there is some evidence on the benefits of HFW, the evidence base that examines health care spending associated with HFW is thin and none have examined spending patterns after the completion of HFW. Using Medicaid administrative enrollment and claims data, we focus on a simple but important question: whether the evolving, evidence-informed HFW can be cost-effective not only in the short-run but also from a long-term perspective. Using difference-in-differences-style econometric methods, we find that the cost reduction in treating youths with SEDs persists over a year after the program.
(Forthcoming at Journal of Mental Health Policy and Economics) (Email me for the paper) |